Time to buy JOE

[scooterbug44]

It isn't crickets, it is an unwillingness to keep retyping the same response just because a stock that tanked is up lately.

Woo-hoo! The stock is worth almost half of what it was in 2006. :roll:

 

[Jesus]

How many 100s of K were you willing to risk in this stock?

 

[scooterbug44]

The market went over 12,000 today.

Yet Joe is still only trading at a fraction of its price in recent years and even with the fabulous gains you keep posting about has only recouped enough value to match its May price.

It pays no dividends.

You obviously have a very different idea of good market performance than I do. ;-)

 

[robertsondavies]

It isn't crickets, it is an unwillingness to keep retyping the same response just because a stock that tanked is up lately.

Woo-hoo! The stock is worth almost half of what it was in 2006. :roll:

Were you suggesting people short JOE in 2005, as I? Please tell.

Scooterbug, let me guess. You were positive in 2005/2006 and are negative now. great, you're a great contrarian indicator, and part of my formula actually. Thanks a bunch.

Not only did I suggest to people to short the stock back in 2006 if they couldn't sell their home in South Walton (i.e. folks with primary residences there). So thanks for pointing out how far the stock had fallen since those heady times, thanks for playing.

Secondly, I don't recall you saying to buy it in early November , am I incorrect? Is that why you're poo pooing 45% gains in 8 weeks, not to mention a HUGE POSITIVE leading indicator for South Walton's economic vibrancy and health.

 

[robertsondavies]

The market went over 12,000 today.

Yet Joe is still only trading at a fraction of its price in recent years and even with the fabulous gains you keep posting about has only recouped enough value to match its May price.

It pays no dividends.

You obviously have a very different idea of good market performance than I do. ;-)

BUZZ, are you thanking Scooterbug in your official role as a financial advisor? I appreciate you weighing in on investments, but invesetment advisors are not really supposed to do that anymore, (which I think is an abdication of their responsibility)

Financial advisors now-a-days are supposed to steer clear of real debates about markets or stocks, or else risk being a "stock jockey". Your sales manager wants you out there gathering assets, not putting yourself on the line as to whether or not those assets are good buys or sells. That's not in vogue anymore, although it should be. They are supposed to gather assets, and outsource that function to "fund managers" and "low cost ETFs" now. They are supposed to say "stay the course", be "well diversified", and help you "follow a personalized plan, depending on your age, goals income" to maintain a globally balanced portfolio of investments, diversified by asset class, geography and style, and placed in the Funds with stellar [backward looking] track records of proven performance"

Buzz stay the course. Gather assets. Don't predict, especially don't predict the future.

Thanks

 

[robertsondavies]

Far better stocks to buy IMO. Nothing about Joe's recent actions make me think it's a good buy.

Scooterbug, with JOE up nearly 50%, since you utterred these words a couple months back, is there anything about Joe's recent actions that makes you think its a good buy now? I hope not.

 

[scooterbug44]

Scooterbug, with JOE up nearly 50%, since you utterred these words a couple months back, is there anything about Joe's recent actions that makes you think its a good buy now? I hope not.

Nope, my position remains unchanged.

Joe as a stock does not meet any of my investment criteria.

 

[robertsondavies]

Nope, my position remains unchanged.

Joe as a stock does not meet any of my investment criteria.

forget the stock then what about South Walton? Is it beautiful?
To me its the most beautiful beach in the North America. It dawned on me while in Park City a few short weeks ago, and I came upon listings for shacks that were "walk to lift, walk to town" for a two and three milliion apiece, and it hit me right there very hard that not only was I right about JOE, but that at least on a relative basis, South Walton was incredibly undervalued, as opposed to mountain real estate out west. Beach real estate is more unique than its given credit for currently, and the BP spill and the 04-06 Hurricane spike has put the undervaluation to out-of- control levels. Afterall, they could put 50 more Park Cities up in Northeast Utah, on any given mountain ridge they choose, and same goes for Aspen or Vail and on and on, but there really isn't that much lineal beach frontage as pricing in South Walton would make one now believe, and South Walton has the unbelievably unique characteristic of no buildings over 48 feet (or thereabouts??), which is an exponentially limiting factor over the long term for units when you look at what can be very close to the beach.

I'm not saying mountain vs. beach. I'm saying that if I can buy a run down "walk to lifts" 3 br home in Park City, where I want to spend 14 days a year, for 2.7 Million, shouldn't a similarly run down 1750 sq. ft 3 bedroom in Seagrove or Seacreste that I can walk to the beach or Seaside be worth more a bit more than 270K, if not 2.7 M?? I say long JOE, and if in doubt, short MTN against it.


That's all for now folks, I'll check back in a few weeks.

Enjoyed it.

 

[Smiling JOe]

The limited number of near ocean acreage has some value but the rest of it is only worth the value of the timber. The can't give away already developed lots in very near ocean locations such as The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Cypress Breeze, etc. What makes you think the swamp land much farther from the beach will sell for more than the lots in these near ocean developments.

Really? Did you say that? You are going to compare Cypress Breeze to WaterSound, WaterColor, The Retreat, or any other JOE development? Have you ever been to the Flintstone-like pool? Have you ever seen the inconsistency of homes in there? What amenities are in there?

The Preserve does have tennis courts and a pool but it doesn't have parks or much landscaping, nor does it have a sense of community like any St Joe project.

Cypress Dunes is a much better comparison to a JOE property. Cypress Dunes has actually had several lot sales in the last six months and about the same number under contract. One problem with Cypress Dunes compared to the other St JOE properties in South Walton is a lack of access to beach or water activities. The clubhouse has a nice pool with a nice view, but the closest beach access has two parking places and one is handicapped only. It is about 2 miles from the beach club. The second closest beach access is a regional access with bathrooms, but the parking lot holds about twenty cars, and fills up fast in the summer. They have no direct access to Stallworth Lake. In comparison, WaterColor, WaterSound, and The Retreat have not only direct access to the beach, but also, each is on a coastal dune lake with direct access. WaterSound (formerly WaterSound North) has direct access to Lake Powell. It wasn't planned as a beach community. It was planned as a full time community. It features a golf course and has much commercial development planned. JOE is also pushing for a direct access road from WaterSound to the new PCB airport. Cypress Dunes does not have that. The main problem with Cypress Dunes is that they tried to sell it as a beach community, when it really isn't a beach community. Don't get me wrong. Cypress Dunes is a nice development, but it was sold as something it is not. It would be better compared to a WaterSound (formerly known as "North"), but it doesn't have the amenities and future planned draw.

 

[scooterbug44]

I think South Walton is gorgeous and a wonderful area - but they don't sell stock in it.

Would love to invest in some local businesses, but none of the ones I love are publicly traded (at least to my knowledge).