Sales on 30A for July/Aug 2005

[Kurt]

So, this is the green spec house? So, it did finally sell. IMH, this house was WAY over the top. Unusual use of materials (some nice)...and seemed very dark inside. We sent friends to look at it and they were turned off. Different stokes, I guess. I don't undersand the concept of the best views from the master bedroom! We have that as well, but duh...spend most of our waking hours in the living area!

I like it a lot. A bit dark from the woods and such creating a contemporary look and feel. The living area is on the 2nd level and has great views. The master is on the 3rd and has better views - typical for beach homes here.

 

[Kurt]

Are there any people on this board who owned homes in Grayton Beach or nearby during Opal who would tell us what it was like to recover from Opal? What was damaged, how long it took for Grayton Beach to be operating again as a place where people could visit. Looks great now so it certainly bounced back from Opal.

Hardest hit was Cottage street - all the old cottages there were washed off their foundations. Water was into the streets but most homes were fine, except for the area along Hotz Avenue.

 

[Rita]

Skier,

Sorry but you're way to time consuming. I simply don't have the time to validate your information which is often inaccurate. Are prices dropping? I can only say that if you look at a lot yesterday that just had a price decrease today, yes "it" dropped but the MLS sales prices today are still about 20-25% over last year at this time. You continue to ignore that fact. :nono1:

In a past life, it was my job to analyze data and one thing I know is not to draw premature conclusions. Yes I do have more data at my disposal in many areas, not just watercolor and watersound.

I don't know what's going to happen in this market any more than you or anyone else does. You make very broad conclusions about the entire real estate market with isolated information about an area that is important to you. .....

C on the O :clap_1:
You make good points.
I worked in statistics for a brief period (in NO WAY claim to be expert!) and it drives me crazy to read posts that pick examples of a property or two and argue the market from those. :roll: It's just not statistically sound.

I am really enjoying this thread. So many of you have offered such interesting input as to market conditions and reasons for buying in SoWal.
Thrilled we finally got off our duffs and bought instead of just talking about it for years.
I do realize that some people may be caught in build-out times they can't meet and that would be a tough situation, but others who bought in order to re-sell at high profits should know the risks and enjoy the benefits or suffer the consequences. We bought a spec home, got a fair price, and the owner did well.
I am glad to see things leveling and overpriced listings come off the market or drop to marketable prices. That keeps the market healthy in my opinion.

Bottom line - I see the SoWal market in general to be very desirable for years to come and we can't wait to get there!

 

[redfisher]

Re: Smiling Joe

Smiling Joe, did i understand that you get the Metro Market numbers each month...if so, when do you think you might have Jul/Aug numbers...Red

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: Smiling Joe

Smiling Joe, did i understand that you get the Metro Market numbers each month...if so, when do you think you might have Jul/Aug numbers...Red

I have never paid close attention to when they arrive. When I get them, I will post them.

 

[Miss Kitty]

It is an awesome place - Virtual Tour

It looks better now with furniture in it and because YOU did the video!!!

 

[Tenn.Guy]

C on the O :clap_1:
You make good points.
I worked in statistics for a brief period (in NO WAY claim to be expert!) and it drives me crazy to read posts that pick examples of a property or two and argue the market from those. :roll: It's just not statistically sound.

I am really enjoying this thread. So many of you have offered such interesting input as to market conditions and reasons for buying in SoWal.
Thrilled we finally got off our duffs and bought instead of just talking about it for years.
I do realize that some people may be caught in build-out times they can't meet and that would be a tough situation, but others who bought in order to re-sell at high profits should know the risks and enjoy the benefits or suffer the consequences. We bought a spec home, got a fair price, and the owner did well.
I am glad to see things leveling and overpriced listings come off the market or drop to marketable prices. That keeps the market healthy in my opinion.

Bottom line - I see the SoWal market in general to be very desirable for years to come and we can't wait to get there!

I'm not in statistics either, but I do remember from my college courses that you need a relatively large sample size to get a statistically correct answer, especially when the population characteristics can vary greatly and therefore effect the results. So, of course skiers specific examples are not statistically relevant, but I don't think he/she stated that they were.

However, Cork's samples were not statistically valid either (he/she never said they were either). He/she was quoting numbers from very small samples (10, 20, 30, etc homes or lots sold). No way were those sample sizes statistically relevant. In these small sample sizes the population charateristics like square feet, lot size, proximity to the ocean, etc, can significantly swing the averages one way or the other.

So, neither poster's information is relevant from a statistical perspective. If you want statistical relevance, both of these posts should drive you crazy. One is making very specific examples to make a point and the other is generalizing to make a point.

Take each one with a grain of salt or believe one and not the other, but don't argue one is better than the other from statistical perspective.

 

[SlowMovin]

Back in my statistics days they used to say you needed a sample size of at least 30 in order to use a Normal Distribution, which was typically the easiest from which to calculate probability (at least it was for me).

I never quite understood why 30 was the magic number, though, especially if your universe is substantially larger than that (say, hundreds of thousands or millions or whatever).

Either of you know the answer to that?

 

[RiverOtter]

 

[Smiling JOe]