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Back from vacation--market looks very soft

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skier

Beach Lover
Hey guys, back from my extended vacation on the gulf coast. It was great except for being chased away for three days by a guy named Dennis.

What I noted during my time in on 30-A is a continued softening of the market. While a several high dollar homes have sold over the last couple of months in Rosemary, Seaside, Seacrest, Watercolor, Grayton, etc, the number of new listings hitting the market far exceeds the number being sold. The inventory is building rapidly and those that need to get out of the market are lowering asking prices dramatically. I saw some homeowners drop prices twice just over the past four weeks. Some price decreases over the last few months are in excess of 20%. In Watercolor, there were approximately 125 properties on the market in mid-May. Today the number approaches 180 (that's between 20 and 25% of the total units!!!!). I think Rosemary has close to 100 properties on the market, Seaside 40ish, etc, etc. I believe the inventory growth situation is similar up and down 30-A. That's a bit scary to me. Are all of these folks selling because they need to (are they flippers that never intended to own long term or multiple property owners that now need to dump some investments), are they simply trying to cash out, or are they just testing the market?

I also tried counting the number of properties on the MLS from Sandestin to the east end of 30-A. There are over 700 properties for sale in excess of $1.5 million and another 1000 plus in the $750k to $1.5 million range. At recent rates of sale (based on Walton County tax appraiser site), that makes for about 4, 5 or more years of inventory (as opposed to less than a years inventory last year) of these high value properties and the number is growing weekly. My figures might be off because I am not privy to all the facts that a real estate agent is so someone should check my numbers.

I do believe the market is very desirable and sales will pick up once the prices fall enough and the market stabilizes. I heard a few potential buyers say that they were waiting on the sidelines until things "bottom out" in terms of prices.

Don't want to start another war, just looking to see how others see the current market.
 
Just trying to report what I saw and nothing else and get others perspectives. Reality, not hype. I wish the facts were different. This forum appears to be for the discussion of real estate sales and development. That's all I am trying to discuss in a fair and honest way.

Other than the Dennis related threads and the restaurant reviews, I believe the last thread I started regarding a bubble was the most hotly debated and widely viewed thread on the website. The debate was informative on both sides, included some fun, and was civilized most of the time.

I look forward to hearing the opinion of others more in tune to the market than I am.
 
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I checked the MLS system and only found 94 properties in Watercolor (I'm not sure where your numbers come from or if perhaps I searched wrong). I don't know how many units are in Watercolor, but I'd guess somewhere around 1k, so around 10% are up for sale. In comparison, my subdivision in the relatively flat Atlanta market currently has about 10% of the homes on the market (a sample of 700 homes).

I'd chalk it up to we are in the height of the selling season and plenty of people are fishing all across the country.
 
Philip,

I get the list of properties directly from Arvida sales (it only includes listings by Arvida and not other realtors) and it includes about 120 properties--land, condos and homes. The rest I got by going to Destin Properties website and counting those listed by other agents. Its at least 180. Not sure why the MLS you were looking at had so few of the total listings. In terms of total units, there will eventually be about 1k, but Arvida still has a lot of unsold lots in phase IV and many lots it still owns in Phase III. So, in terms of non-Arvida owned units, the inventory is in the range of 20-25%.
 
skier said:
Philip,

I get the list of properties directly from Arvida sales (it only includes listings by Arvida and not other realtors) and it includes about 120 properties--land, condos and homes. The rest I got by going to Destin Properties website and counting those listed by other agents. Its at least 180. Not sure why the MLS you were looking at had so few of the total listings. In terms of total units, there will eventually be about 1k, but Arvida still has a lot of unsold lots in phase IV and many lots it still owns in Phase III. So, in terms of non-Arvida owned units, the inventory is in the range of 20-25%.

Hmm. Sounds like you have more accurate information then. Perhaps Arvida doesn't list each individual property in the system. In that case, then all I can say is 25% inventory is a rather daunting number, especially if you are a flipper and you need to unload. I'm interested to see more responses to this thread...
 
And the Arvida listings for Watersound exceed 40. There are MANY others listed by other agents/brokers.
 
skier said:
That's a bit scary to me.
Welcome back. Why is it scary to you? I thought you weren't concerned about your own situation?


skier said:
Other than the Dennis related threads and the restaurant reviews, I believe the last thread I started regarding a bubble was the most hotly debated and widely viewed thread on the website.

Bubbles, hurricanes, sharks, erosion, dune destruction, and cuisine are popular. :lol:
 
I am a homeowner (house not on the market nor are we in the market for a purchase) and certainly don't think of this board as a real estate guide. What we enjoy is hearing about the condition of the beaches, getting to "know" others who enjoy or live in South Walton County, and seeing the photos since we can't be there as often as we might like. We like the restaurant reviews and the occasional seafood recipe, too. The board has been especially helpful to us for opportunieis to identify and patronize local businesses, since we live elsewhere. Kurt's advertising and virtual tour of our home has offered great results in combination with our rental/management company. And I can't even say how important this board has been as we watch storms and try to assess their aftermath accurately or how our property fared.

What I have seen over the past few weeks is a number of postings from individuals who seem to have lowering real estate prices in the area as their objective. The claims are not based on credible evidence and it appears that several of those posting wish to create a panic situation so that property prices drop. Could it be there is some self interest involved here?

Well located real estate will always hold its value. Don't be fooled by this kind of unsubstantiated hype. And those waiting for prices to go down may be crying crocodile tears a year from now when a slight correction occurs and interest rates have gone up even more. The speculation in preconstruction condominiums will cool by virtue of its own dynamic. But this is a specific niche in the market there. Keep your eye on the ball.
 
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